Mesoscale Discussion 708

Issued

May 24, 2020, 3:07 PM CDT (20:07 UTC)

Expired

May 24, 2020, 4:30 PM CDT

In force

83 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

95%

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 219May 24, 3:25 PM CDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221May 24, 5:35 PM CDT

583 
ACUS11 KWNS 242008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242007 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 242007Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to form along the
dryline soon. Large hail (some very large) and damaging winds will
be the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Cu have started to form along the dryline in the last
hour as the dryline circulation has strengthened with temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s west of the dryline with temperatures in
the 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s east of the dryline. Expect
updrafts to become more vigorous in the next hour as ascent from the
mid-level shortwave starts to overspread the region. Early evidence
of this can be seen northwest of LBB as towering cumulus have
expanded ahead of a mid-level cirrus streak likely indicating the
leading edge of better ascent. MLCAPE ranges from 1500 to 2500 J/kg
east of the dryline (per SPC mesoanalysis) with additional
destabilization expected as the boundary layer warms and low-level
flow backs and advects richer low-level moisture northwestward. This
moderate to strong instability and very steep mid-level lapse rates
(9 to 9.5 C/km per SPC mesoanalysis) will support explosive updraft
development and a threat for large and very large hail in addition
to severe wind gusts. 

The primary limiting factor to a greater severe threat is the modest
shear across the region with effective shear around 25 to 30 knots.
This will likely lead to a combination of multicells and supercells
with eventual upscale growth into one or more linear segments with
primarily a wind threat. 

The most pronounced low-level backed flow is currently near Lubbock
and is expected to back even further through the evening. This will
lead to a somewhat enhanced tornado threat, especially with any
supercells which have deviant southeast or southward movement.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32930304 32900214 32990081 33970018 35219986 36729983
            37129998 37210117 36520148 35690197 34750242 34230255
            32930304

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.