Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2019

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

July 20, 2019Manistee County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at Jul 20, 2019, 2:49 PM EDT for Manistee County, Michigan. It was in force for 3 hr. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 20, 2019, 2:49 PM EDT (18:49 UTC)
Expired
Jul 20, 2019, 5:45 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Manistee County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 20, 2:59 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.251 Ne Wellston, MIMESONET STATION WLLM4 WELLSTON.
Jul 20, 3:00 PM EDTFLOOD3 S Eastlake, MIWATER OVER ROAD DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.
Jul 20, 3:00 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 S Manistee, MIFLOODING SURROUNDING SOME 12TH STREET RESIDENCES.
Jul 20, 3:10 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.261 Nnw Wellston, MIMESONET STATION EW0269 WELLSTON.
Jul 20, 3:40 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.321 Nnw Wellston, MIMESONET STATION EW0269 WELLSTON. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
Jul 20, 3:46 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.911 Ssw Manistee, MIMESONET STATION DW9113 MANISTEE.
Jul 20, 3:47 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.571 N Manistee, MIMESONET STATION DW3748 MANISTEE.
Jul 20, 3:55 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 5.351 Nnw Wellston, MIMESONET STATION EW0269 WELLSTON.
Jul 20, 5:00 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 8.91 Nw Parkdale, MISTORM TOTAL RAIN AS OF 5:00PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2019-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2357 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2019-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 240 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2357 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-173 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
706 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
254 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

238 
WGUS53 KAPX 201849
FFWAPX
MIC101-202145-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0002.190720T1849Z-190720T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Manistee County in northern Michigan...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 246 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain across Manistee County. Manistee has received 
  6.39 inches of rain as of 2:30pm, with another inch expected 
  across the area. Rain rates with this storm have reached 2 inches 
  an hour at times. Flash flooding is expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Manistee, Arcadia, Eastlake, Kaleva, Onekama, Copemish, Wellston,
  Pierport, Dublin, Brethren, Norwalk, Parkdale, Orchard Beach State
  Park, Pere Marquette State Forest and Star Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 8634 4426 8636 4452 8626 4451 8582
      4416 8582 4418 8639

$$

STJ
1 follow-up statement
054 
WGUS73 KAPX 202038
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
438 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

MIC101-202145-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Manistee MI-
438 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR
MANISTEE COUNTY...

At 435 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms have 
produced heavy rain in the city of Manistee. As of 4:30pm this 
afternoon 7.53 inches of rain have fallen, and another inch is 
expected. Localized flash flooding is expected to continue.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Manistee, Eastlake, Kaleva, Onekama, Wellston, Brethren, Norwalk,
Parkdale, Dublin, Orchard Beach State Park and Star Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 4423 8635 4425 8634 4426 8636 4438 8628
      4437 8582 4416 8582 4418 8639

$$

STJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 9:03 PM EDTHeat AdvisoryAPXArenac, Gladwin, Iosco, Ogemaw16 hr
Jul 19, 11:15 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX90 min
Jul 19, 11:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXBenzie, Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Manistee, Wexford80 min
Jul 20, 12:12 AM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryAPXAntrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Leelanau and 1 more5 hr
Jul 20, 12:49 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX86 min
Jul 20, 1:06 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXKalkaska, Missaukee39 min
Jul 20, 11:43 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee, Wexford24 min
Jul 20, 12:03 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningAPXManistee3 hr
Jul 20, 1:35 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX85 min
Jul 20, 1:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXManistee53 min
Jul 20, 1:59 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX46 min
Jul 20, 2:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXLeelanau29 min
Jul 20, 2:28 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX32 min
Jul 20, 2:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXBenzie, Grand Traverse, Leelanau40 min
Jul 20, 4:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXAlcona, Iosco, Ogemaw44 min
Jul 20, 4:53 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX97 min
Jul 20, 5:45 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningAPXManistee18 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2019Every flash flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.