Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 1237
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 5, 2018, 5:38 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 5, 2018, 5:38 PM CDT (22:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 5, 2018, 7:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Ellis County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Lane County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2446 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 239 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 231 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
874
ACUS11 KWNS 052239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052238
KSZ000-NEZ000-060015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018
Areas affected...North-central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052238Z - 060015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible across
northwest into north-central KS during the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Persistent moisture convergence along with modest
synoptic forcing for ascent tied to the enhanced mid/upper flow
farther north has lead to convective initiation over northwest KS
during the past hour. This area is on the southern end of the better
vertical shear and within a pocket of relatively higher instability.
The downstream airmass appears less favorable for sustained
thunderstorm activity, largely as a result of robust daytime heating
and resultant boundary-layer mixing. These factors, coupled with
slightly warmer mid-level temperatures, have resulted in reduced
instability across central KS. Additionally, the displacement
farther south and east of the strong synoptic forcing has resulted
in the presence of more mid-level dry air than areas farther west.
Entrainment of this drier air into the current updrafts and the
reduced instability over the region suggest gradual storm
dissipation should occur. That being said, strong convergence along
the storm outflow may result in storm persistence longer than the
environment would suggest, particularly if the storm becomes
well-organized in the next half hour or so. New development farther
north near the central NE/KS border is also possible. These storms,
if they develop, may also pose an isolated severe risk.
Current expectation is that the small spatial extent of the severe
threat will preclude the need for a watch but convective trends
across the region will be monitored closely.
..Mosier/Hart.. 08/05/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39640026 40039990 39969905 38959911 38389961 38200033
38320081 38460101 38980077 39640026Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.