Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Gaylord, MI

August 15, 2018Oscoda County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at Aug 15, 2018, 6:27 PM EDT for Oscoda County, Michigan. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 15, 2018, 6:27 PM EDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired
Aug 15, 2018, 9:30 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Oscoda County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2018-08-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1067 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2018-08-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1067 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
835 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

283 
WGUS53 KAPX 152227
FFWAPX
MIC135-160130-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0004.180815T2227Z-180816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
627 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Oscoda County in northern Michigan...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have 
  already fallen, centered on and just north of Red Oak. Flash 
  flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Red Oak. 

Additional rainfall amounts of around an inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 8437 4481 8437 4475 8416 4465 8416

$$

JZ
4 follow-up statements
112 
WGUS73 KAPX 152253
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
653 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

MIC135-160130-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oscoda MI-
653 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR
OSCODA COUNTY...

At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Radar estimates that 2 to 4 inches of 
rain has fallen on parts of Greenwood and Elmer Townships, with the 
heaviest amounts centered about 2 miles north of Red Oak. Flash 
flooding has likely already begun, or will begin shortly.

In particular, Wright Creek, the East Branch of Big Creek, and 
tributaries of those waterways in northwest Oscoda County are 
expected to quickly rise out of their banks and flood.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Red Oak. 

Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are expected in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 8437 4481 8437 4475 8416 4465 8416

$$

JZ
167 
WGUS73 KAPX 152355
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
755 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

MIC135-160130-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oscoda MI-
755 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR
OSCODA COUNTY...

At 752 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that significant rainfall had 
ended in the flash flood area. However, radar estimated that 2 to 4 
inches of rain fell earlier this afternoon and evening in parts of 
Greenwood and Elmer Townships. The heaviest amounts were centered 
about 2 miles north of Red Oak.

In particular, Wright Creek, the East Branch of Big Creek, and 
tributaries of those waterways in northwest Oscoda County are 
expected to flood this evening.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Red Oak. 

Little additional rainfall is expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 8437 4481 8437 4475 8416 4465 8416

$$

JZ
118 
WGUS73 KAPX 160050
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
850 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

MIC135-160130-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oscoda MI-
850 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR
OSCODA COUNTY...

At 849 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated that rainfall had ended in 
the flash flood area. However, radar estimated that 2 to 4 inches of 
rain fell earlier this afternoon and evening in parts of Greenwood 
and Elmer Townships. The heaviest amounts were centered about 2 
miles north of Red Oak.

In particular, Wright Creek, the East Branch of Big Creek, and 
tributaries of those waterways in northwest Oscoda County are 
expected to flood this evening.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Red Oak. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 8437 4481 8437 4475 8416 4465 8416

$$

JZ
527 
WGUS73 KAPX 160136
FFSAPX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
936 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

MIC135-160145-
/O.EXP.KAPX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oscoda MI-
936 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OSCODA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

Rainfall has ended, and no reports of flooding have been recieved. 
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please use extra 
caution when driving in northwest Oscoda County tonight.

LAT...LON 4469 8437 4481 8437 4475 8416 4465 8416

$$

JZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 15, 2:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAPXOscoda32 min
Aug 15, 3:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAPXAlcona, Alpena, Iosco, Montmorency, Oscoda58 min
Aug 15, 4:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAPXOscoda27 min
Aug 15, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXOscoda21 min
Aug 15, 6:07 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAPXOscoda23 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.