Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 913

June 14, 20168 counties in North Carolina; 31 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2016, 1:30 PM EDT for 8 counties in North Carolina; 31 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 90 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 14, 2016, 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2016, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
90 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 39 counties

Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Oconee County, SC, Pickens County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2016-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 179 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2016-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
179 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-153 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1447 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

602 
ACUS11 KWNS 141730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141730 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 141730Z - 141900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST N OF
THE NC-SC BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY RICHER MOISTURE
POSITIONED TO THE W /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/ IS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F...AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500
J/KG...TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG/S
OF THE STALLING FRONT. MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT /I.E. AROUND 20 KT AT
500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SVR DOWNBURST WINDS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35228148 35107959 34897820 34267814 33797877 33717941
            33668038 33628114 33718213 34198265 34768311 34918300
            34938200 35228148

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.