Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 821
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 5, 2016, 1:47 PM EDT for Columbia County, Richmond County, Georgia; 35 counties in North Carolina; 25 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 5, 2016, 1:47 PM EDT (17:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 5, 2016, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 62 counties
Columbia County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Union County, NC, Wake County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 334 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 832 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 134 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted.
660
ACUS11 KWNS 051747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051747
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH THE WRN AND CNTRL CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051747Z - 051945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MULTICELLS AS WELL AS SOME SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 19Z.
DISCUSSION...THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD HAS PROMOTED DESTABILIZATION OF
THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK CAP...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE
BROAD WARM SECTOR. A BELT OF 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER
HAS OVERSPREAD THE WRN HALF OF WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE BOTH MULTICELL
AND SOME SUPERCELL MODES. DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY RISK. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LARGE HAIL THREAT...BUT THIS
WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT WITHIN STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP UPDRAFT
ROTATION.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 06/05/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34528286 35688178 36438032 36297807 35027898 32948187
34528286SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 3:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Cabarrus and 64 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 5, 7:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Edgecombe and 20 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.