Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1908

December 25, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 25, 2016, 6:13 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2016, 6:13 PM EST (23:13 UTC)
Expired
Dec 26, 2016, 12:15 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 60 counties

Baraga County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Iron County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Aitkin County, MN, Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Pine County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Steele County, ND, Traill County, ND, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2016-12-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2016-12-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 150 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
541 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
273 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

429 
ACUS11 KWNS 252313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252313 
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-260515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

Areas affected...portions of far eastern ND...northern MN/WI and
western portions of the Upper Peninsula of MI

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 252313Z - 260515Z

SUMMARY...Snow, sleet and freezing rain, heavy at times, will
continue for the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A band of light to moderate precipitation is spreading
northward across the upper Midwest late this afternoon in warm
advection regime ahead of the deepening surface low over southwest
NE and upper shortwave impulse now ejecting northeastward into the
central and northern Plains. On the southern fringes of this
precipitation from east-central ND into central MN, surface
temperatures were hovering near freezing and areas of mixed winter
precip types were noted. In fact, some sites were reporting freezing
rain rates greater than 0.05 in/hr. Further north, accumulation of
freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow may be greater due to
surface temperatures in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees. Surface
temperatures may warm a bit into this nighttime hours but are
expected to remain below freezing several more hours. The midlevel
warm layer between 850-700mb ranges from around 5 deg C to 1 deg C
from south to north. As a result, freezing rain and sleet are
expected, possibly mixed with snow at times as midlevel temperatures
begin to cool in the 04-06z time frame. Freezing rain rates may be
heavy at times, from 0.02 to 0.05 in/hr for the next 4-6 hours.

..Leitman.. 12/25/2016

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   45768761 45078802 44818866 44698927 45049064 45589250
            45969414 46199516 46739748 47019832 47419842 47849829
            48289779 48779712 48929596 48589332 46798814 45768761

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 1:56 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Benson, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burleigh and 22 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.