Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1821

November 22, 20168 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 22, 2016, 1:50 AM CST for 8 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 22, 2016, 1:50 AM CST (07:50 UTC)
Expired
Nov 22, 2016, 3:45 AM CST
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Clay County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2016-11-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2016-11-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 139 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1187 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
139 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

749 
ACUS11 KWNS 220751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220750 
MNZ000-NDZ000-220945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN ND...NORTHWESTERN MN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 220750Z - 220945Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE 08-12 UTC PERIOD BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM AND A TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SHIELD OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS OF 0745 UTC.  A LOW-LEVEL
WARM-AIR-ADVECTION REGIME IS IMPLIED BY A VEERING WIND PROFILE AT
KABR.  STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT H95-H85 AROUND 40 KT IS SERVING TO
ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
FEATURES AN INITIALLY DRY 0-1 KM LAYER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THIS LAYER WILL SATURATE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.  BECAUSE OF WET-BULB
COOLING PROCESSES...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
DEG F WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE 30-32 DEG F RANGE.  AS A RESULT...
FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE BOTH PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE AND WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE TO END THE FREEZING RAIN.

..SMITH.. 11/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   46949681 48989745 48989625 48259559 47229537 46809613
            46949681

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.