Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 13

January 9, 20166 counties in Alabama; 47 counties in Mississippi; 6 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 9, 2016, 12:21 PM CST for 6 counties in Alabama; 47 counties in Mississippi; 6 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 9, 2016, 12:21 PM CST (18:21 UTC)
Expired: Jan 9, 2016, 2:45 PM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 59 counties

Colbert County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Marion County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Alcorn County, MS, Attala County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Chester County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Wayne County, TN

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 806 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

279 
ACUS11 KWNS 091822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091821 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MS...PORTIONS OF SWRN TN/NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091821Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LIMITED
MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AT 1815Z...WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS AR...WHILE RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW ONE BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS CNTRL MS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP FURTHER SW NEAR THE LA/MS BORDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW BREAKS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR 60F AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS WRN MS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE VORT MAX...THIS MODEST HEATING HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE TO RISE TO
250-500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. 

STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IS RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE TEMPERED BY LIMITED BUOYANCY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND THREAT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33149100 33919052 34589015 34978989 35318925 35458876
            35508806 35268759 34668749 34178754 33368796 32868824
            32558846 32158871 32018928 32009000 32049055 32339090
            33149100

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.