Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1221

July 8, 201612 counties in Oklahoma; 20 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 8, 2016, 8:44 PM CDT for 12 counties in Oklahoma; 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2016, 8:44 PM CDT (01:44 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2016, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 32 counties

Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Hughes County, OK, McClain County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Borden County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Garza County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Martin County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1683 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1804 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

293 
ACUS11 KWNS 090145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090144 
OKZ000-TXZ000-090245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0844 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK...NW AND W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362...

VALID 090144Z - 090245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN WW
362...PARTICULARLY FROM SWRN OK INTO NW TX. A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS SW OF THE WATCH TOWARDS THE MIDLAND
AREA.

DISCUSSION...A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS REMAIN WITHIN WW 362...WITH THE
STRONGEST OVER SWRN OK/NW TX AS OF 0130Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS THE AIR MASS WHERE
EARLIER TSTM DEVELOPMENT WAS FOCUSED HAS LARGELY BEEN
OVERTURNED...AND THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR DOWNBURST WINDS STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...AS EVIDENCED
BY RECENT REPORTS OF 60-65 MPH WIND GUSTS SW OF FREDERICK OK. 

ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED SW OF WW 362 TOWARDS THE
MIDLAND TX AREA. WEAKER FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN MORE PULSE-LIKE
NATURE OF TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY
SVR WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN MORE RAPID STABILIZATION WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

..ROGERS.. 07/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34899621 34359772 32849933 31990056 31860166 32100217
            32480216 32900177 33370171 33110146 33780013 34939885
            35409738 35539660 35369630 34899621

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 9, 6:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Canadian, Kingfisher, Major	67 min
Jul 9, 3:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Collin, Dallas, Denton, Montague, Parker, Tarrant and 1 more	53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.