Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1069

June 28, 20169 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 28, 2016, 4:39 AM CDT for 9 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 28, 2016, 4:39 AM CDT (09:39 UTC)
Expired
Jun 28, 2016, 6:45 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Saline County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2016-06-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 173 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2016-06-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
173 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-103 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2461 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

318 
ACUS11 KWNS 280940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280939 
KSZ000-281145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 280939Z - 281145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL/FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SSEWD AT NEAR 30 KT ACROSS PARTS OF N
CENTRAL/NERN KS ATTM.  WHILE ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW STABLE
LAYER...AND DESPITE VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM PER MODEL
POINT-FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONFIRMED BY LATEST TWX /TOPEKA KS/
WSR-88D VWP...WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST
HALF HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELL NOW MOVING INTO DICKINSON CO. 
THOUGH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THE STORMS AND 30 KT NNWLYS NEAR H5 DRIVE
CONTINUED SSELY STORM MOTION...DOWNSTREAM SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED/ISOLATED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILITY
AND LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE FLOW.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 06/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39129770 39269731 39109675 38649633 38069620 37699667
            37929750 38819786 39129770

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 28, 3:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Harper, Kingman and 4 more65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.