Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1021
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2016, 4:45 PM EDT for 36 counties in North Carolina; 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 90 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 22, 2016, 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 22, 2016, 6:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 90 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 41 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Charlotte County, VA, City of Danville, VA, Halifax County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -160 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1103 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 107 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 111 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
637
ACUS11 KWNS 222046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222045
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-222215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CAROLINA...SRN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 222045Z - 222215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
SPARSE...BUT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
PROBABLY HAS AIDED THE INITIATION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. LOW-LEVEL LIFT APPEARS GENERALLY WEAK/UNFOCUSED ACROSS
THIS REGION...BUT INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND AT LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE /1500+ J PER
KG/...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. ONE OR TWO
STORMS COULD STILL INTENSIFY FURTHER THROUGH 22-23Z...WITH A
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN SIZABLE
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
PIEDMONT TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
..KERR/GUYER.. 06/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35338145 36308001 36897913 37137844 36627764 36047736
35147840 34797933 35138126 35338145SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 8:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth and 6 more | 63 min |
| Jun 22, 12:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington, Wise and 2 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.