Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2016

Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 12, 2016Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 12, 2016, 4:09 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 12, 2016, 4:09 PM MST (23:09 UTC)
Expired: Aug 12, 2016, 7:15 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 12, 4:15 PM MST	FLASH FLOOD	Yarnell, AZ	MUD AND DEBRIS 8-12 INCHES DEEP. FLOW OVER A FEW ROADS AND FENCE DESTROYED AS WATER APPROACHED A HOME.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 627 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -176 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1789 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

270 
WGUS55 KFGZ 122309
FFWFGZ
AZC025-130215-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0049.160812T2309Z-160813T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
409 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 715 PM MST

* AT 407 PM MST...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE CRITICAL
  SOUTHERN END OF THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR NEAR YARNELL. FLASH
  FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  YARNELL AND GLEN ILAH. 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE BURN SCAR WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE DRAINAGES NEAR YARNELL. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN
CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...EAST ANTELOPE
CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...ARRASTRE CREEK...ANTELOPE CREEK...YARNELL
CREEK AND MILLER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES NEAR WASHES AND CREEKS...PARTICULARLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF YARNELL...MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS.
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED OR WASHED OUT. VERY HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE WATER TO FLOW DOWN HIGHWAY 89 THROUGH YARNELL.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 11267 3419 11274 3422 11277 3426 11271

$$

MOTTICE

3 follow-up statements

563 
WGUS75 KFGZ 122343
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
443 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

AZC025-130215-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-160813T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
443 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 441 PM MST...VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR. RADAR ESTIMATES AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES ON THE HILLS DIRECTLY ABOVE
YARNELL. FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT...ESPEICALLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF YARNELL.

THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER
LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
YARNELL AND GLEN ILAH. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...EAST ANTELOPE
CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...ARRASTRE CREEK...ANTELOPE CREEK...YARNELL
CREEK AND MILLER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES NEAR WASHES AND CREEKS...PARTICULARLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF YARNELL...MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS.
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED OR WASHED OUT. VERY HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE WATER TO FLOW DOWN HIGHWAY 89 THROUGH YARNELL.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 11267 3419 11274 3422 11277 3426 11271

$$

MOTTICE

422 
WGUS75 KFGZ 130027
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
527 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

AZC025-130215-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-160813T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
527 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 519 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED
OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR. RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 715 PM. AVOID TRAVEL
IN THE AREA OF YARNELL IF POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
YARNELL AND GLEN ILAH. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...EAST ANTELOPE
CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...ARRASTRE CREEK...ANTELOPE CREEK...YARNELL
CREEK AND MILLER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES NEAR WASHES AND CREEKS...PARTICULARLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF YARNELL...MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS.
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED OR WASHED OUT. VERY HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE WATER TO FLOW DOWN HIGHWAY 89 THROUGH YARNELL.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 11267 3419 11274 3422 11277 3426 11271

$$

MCCOLLUM

966 
WGUS75 KFGZ 130210
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
710 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

AZC025-130218-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-160813T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
710 PM MST FRI AUG 12 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM
MST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED AND FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED IN THE AREA
ON THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR AND YARNELL. FLOODING IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY REMAINING
ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3422 11267 3419 11274 3422 11277 3426 11271

$$

MCCOLLUM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 12, 12:55 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Gila	3 hr
Aug 12, 1:41 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	3 hr
Aug 12, 2:29 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	31 min
Aug 12, 3:52 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	113 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2016 Every flash flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.