Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2016

Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 20, 2016Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 20, 2016, 1:34 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2016, 1:34 PM MST (20:34 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2016, 4:30 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 104 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -283 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

923 
WGUS55 KFGZ 202034
FFWFGZ
AZC025-202330-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0013.160720T2034Z-160720T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
134 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MST

* AT 133 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
  HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR, WHICH WILL HEAD DOWN
  INTO THE YARNELL AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  YARNELL.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE BURN SCAR WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST
OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...EAST ANTELOPE
CREEK...KIRKLAND CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...ARRASTRE CREEK...ANTELOPE
CREEK...MESCAL CREEK...YARNELL CREEK AND MILLER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES NEAR WASHES AND CREEKS...PARTICULARLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF YARNELL...MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS.
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED OR WASHED OUT. VERY HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE WATER TO FLOW DOWN HIGHWAY 89 THROUGH YARNELL.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 11268 3423 11264 3420 11275 3422 11276

$$

MOTTICE

2 follow-up statements

624 
WGUS75 KFGZ 202137
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
237 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

AZC025-202330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160720T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
237 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 237 PM MST...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING
IS IMMINENT IN THE FIRE SCAR AREA.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE BURN SCAR WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL DRAINAGES. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST OF
ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
YARNELL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...EAST ANTELOPE
CREEK...KIRKLAND CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...ARRASTRE CREEK...ANTELOPE
CREEK...MESCAL CREEK...YARNELL CREEK AND MILLER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
FIRE AREA. RESIDENCES NEAR WASHES AND CREEKS...PARTICULARLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF YARNELL...MAY BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER AND DEBRIS.
ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED OR WASHED OUT. VERY HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE WATER TO FLOW DOWN HIGHWAY 89 THROUGH YARNELL.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 11268 3423 11264 3420 11275 3422 11276

$$

MOTTICE

079 
WGUS75 KFGZ 202210
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

AZC025-202219-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160720T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI AZ-
310 PM MST WED JUL 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT OVER THE TENDERFOOT FIRE SCAR AND YARNELL.

LAT...LON 3428 11268 3423 11264 3420 11275 3422 11276

$$

RB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 6:46 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 20, 12:01 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 20, 12:11 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 20, 12:32 PM MST	Flash Flood Watch	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	5 hr
Jul 20, 12:56 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 20, 1:12 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 20, 1:46 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	29 min
Jul 20, 2:01 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	119 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2016 Every flash flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.