Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 521

October 25, 20159 parishes in Louisiana; Hancock County, Harrison County, Jackson County, Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 25, 2015, 7:12 PM CDT for 9 parishes in Louisiana; Hancock County, Harrison County, Jackson County, Mississippi. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 25, 2015, 7:12 PM CDT (00:12 UTC)
Expired
Oct 26, 2015, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
10%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
30%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 25, 7:21 PM CDTTornado WarningLIXLafourche, Saint Charles39 min
Oct 25, 8:44 PM CDTTornado WarningLIXLafourche, Terrebonne31 min
Oct 25, 9:44 PM CDTTornado WarningLIXJefferson, Saint Charles31 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2015-10-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 318 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2015-10-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 468 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
318 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
488 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
468 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
554 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

957 
WWUS20 KWNS 260010
SEL1  
SPC WW 260010
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-260700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
  COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 710 PM
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TORNADO THREAT IS APPARENT ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW MORE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...THIS TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT.  OTHERWISE...SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1887 FOR INITIAL
METEOROLOGICAL REASONING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17525.


...EDWARDS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 25, 10:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 4 more2 hr
Oct 26, 1:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSaint Bernard118 min
Oct 26, 2:05 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCSaint Bernard7 hr
Oct 25, 7:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Jackson3 hr
Oct 26, 7:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Jackson118 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.