Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 921

June 6, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2015, 11:00 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 6, 2015, 11:00 PM CDT (04:00 UTC)
Expired
Jun 7, 2015, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Buena Vista County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Emmet County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Monona County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Palo Alto County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Pocahontas County, IA, Sac County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Burt County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Madison County, NE, Platte County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Clay County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Union County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2015-06-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1554 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2015-06-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 184 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1554 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1214 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
184 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
388 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
13.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

435 
ACUS11 KWNS 070400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070400 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN MN...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...

VALID 070400Z - 070600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 265 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK HAS LESSENED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA BY 05Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A PRONOUNCED LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA
LATE THIS EVENING...AND LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WITH BRIEF LEADING-EDGE
CIRCULATIONS. AS THE LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SVR
RISK GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE PRIMARY RISK IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WITH TIME THE THREAT WILL INCREASE TO THE E OF WW...AND
THUS A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 05Z INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA.


ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE WW AREA...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/COOLING HAS SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT THERE AND
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA...REFERENCE WPC MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 180 FOR DETAILS.

..BUNTING.. 06/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41479684 41559777 41889785 42519726 43739656 44189638
            44359590 44369549 43969491 42939446 42539427 42049472
            41589565 41479684

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 6, 8:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Ida, Lyon, Monona, O'Brien, Osceola and 3 more64 min
Jun 6, 8:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 6 more4 hr
Jun 6, 11:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Audubon, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Butler and 32 more6 hr
Jun 7, 1:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan and 29 more2 hr
Jun 7, 1:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Davis, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Keokuk and 9 more53 min
Jun 7, 3:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAppanoose, Clarke, Davis, Decatur, Des Moines, Henry and 10 more4 hr
Jun 7, 6:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDavis, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Lee, Van Buren84 min
Jun 6, 7:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Big Stone, Chippewa, Clay, Douglas, Grant and 11 more91 min
Jun 6, 10:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChippewa, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle, Meeker, Morrison, Pope and 3 more66 min
Jun 6, 7:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChase, Dundy, Frontier, Hayes, Hitchcock, Perkins and 1 more95 min
Jun 6, 10:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChase, Dawson, Dundy, Frontier, Furnas, Gosper and 5 more57 min
Jun 7, 2:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChase, Dundy, Hayes, Hitchcock, Perkins114 min
Jun 7, 5:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCRichardson89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.