Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 1237
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 30, 2015, 7:59 AM CDT for 10 counties in Alabama; 47 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 30, 2015, 7:59 AM CDT (12:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 30, 2015, 10:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 57 counties
Bullock County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Lee County, AL, Macon County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Harris County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pike County, GA, Polk County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Troup County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walton County, GA, Webster County, GA
The radar
The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 713 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1029 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
368
ACUS11 KWNS 301300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301259
GAZ000-ALZ000-301500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL / N-CNTRL AND W-CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301259Z - 301500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A MCV LOCATED 35 MI ENE CBM MOVING
ESEWD AND EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS N-CNTRL AL THIS MORNING. A BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /30 KT AT
H5/ SAMPLED ON THE 12Z BMX RAOB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.
MODERATE BUOYANCY /1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WITH AMPLE PW OBSERVED ON
THE BMX RAOB WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
UPSTREAM OF THE MCV...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS
WILL PIVOT INTO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LEND AT LEAST
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR A CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE AL/GA VICINITY.
THEREFORE A GRADUAL UPTICK IN STORM INTENSITY IS FORECAST WITH
PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EVOLVING
CLUSTER.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/30/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 32368628 33928564 34348504 34318381 33758327 32718361
32008422 31878529 32368628SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 11:17 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Geneva, Henry, Houston | 88 min |
| Jun 30, 11:38 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Butler, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw and 4 more | 97 min |
| Jun 30, 1:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw, Dale, Escambia and 4 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 30, 11:55 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fannin, Rabun, Towns, Union | 3 hr |
| Jun 30, 12:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Bulloch and 66 more | 89 min |
| Jun 30, 12:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Elbert, Franklin, Habersham, Hart, Rabun, Stephens | 7 hr |
| Jun 30, 12:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Bryan and 64 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 30, 12:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Appling, Atkinson, Bacon, Brantley, Charlton, Clinch and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 30, 3:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Bulloch and 53 more | 117 min |
| Jun 30, 3:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baker, Brooks, Colquitt, Decatur, Grady, Miller and 3 more | 114 min |
| Jun 30, 6:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Catoosa, Fannin, Franklin, Gilmer, Habersham, Hart and 7 more | 67 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.