Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015
Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at Aug 14, 2015, 5:08 PM EDT for Arenac County, Iosco County, Michigan. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 14, 2015, 5:08 PM EDT (21:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 14, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Arenac County, MI, Iosco County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 972 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -89 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1114 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
717
WGUS53 KAPX 142108
FFWAPX
MIC011-069-150000-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0002.150814T2108Z-150815T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
508 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
IOSCO COUNTY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
NORTHEASTERN ARENAC COUNTY IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
* UNTIL 800 PM EDT
* AT 505 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN BETWEEN 500PM AND 700PM. SOME FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED AROUND TAWAS CITY...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... EAST
TAWAS...TAWAS CITY...AU GRES...WHITTEMORE...TWINING...
TURNER...WURTSMITH AIRFIELD...HALE...PLAINFIELD
TOWNSHIP...NATIONAL CITY...WILBER AND SID TOWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
&&
LAT...LON 4435 8340 4428 8346 4428 8350 4423 8355
4411 8357 4409 8359 4405 8359 4406 8363
4404 8367 4404 8381 4451 8386 4451 8335
$$
JPB2 follow-up statements
782
WGUS73 KAPX 142155
FFSAPX
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
555 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MIC011-069-150000-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150815T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IOSCO MI-ARENAC MI-
555 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR
IOSCO AND NORTHEASTERN ARENAC COUNTIES...
AT 546 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR OVER CENTRAL IOSCO
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING OVER PORTIONS OF
OSCODA AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. IF THESE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL ADD TO THE RAIN TOTALS THAT HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN RAPID
FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...SMITH CREEK...
VAUGHAN CREEK...AND TRIBUTARIES OF THE AU SABLE RIVER IN IOSCO
COUNTY...AND DRAINS AND TRIBUTARIES OF THE AU GRES RIVER IN ARENAC
COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
&&
LAT...LON 4435 8340 4428 8346 4428 8350 4423 8355
4411 8357 4409 8359 4405 8359 4406 8363
4404 8367 4404 8381 4451 8386 4451 8335
$$
JPB893
WGUS73 KAPX 142332
FFSAPX
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
732 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MIC011-069-142340-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150815T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IOSCO MI-ARENAC MI-
732 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR IOSCO AND NORTHEASTERN ARENAC COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...
THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE EVENING...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
LAT...LON 4435 8340 4428 8346 4428 8350 4423 8355
4411 8357 4409 8359 4405 8359 4406 8363
4404 8367 4404 8381 4451 8386 4451 8335
$$
LAWRENCEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 12:51 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | APX | 39 min | |
| Aug 14, 1:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | APX | 29 min | |
| Aug 14, 1:24 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | APX | 66 min | |
| Aug 14, 1:25 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | APX | Mackinac | 50 min |
| Aug 14, 1:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | APX | Chippewa | 30 min |
| Aug 14, 1:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Chippewa, Mackinac | 46 min |
| Aug 14, 2:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Grand Traverse, Kalkaska | 36 min |
| Aug 14, 3:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Crawford, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Roscommon | 26 min |
| Aug 14, 3:07 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | APX | 53 min | |
| Aug 14, 3:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Iosco | 48 min |
| Aug 14, 3:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Presque Isle | 36 min |
| Aug 14, 3:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | APX | Roscommon | 29 min |
| Aug 14, 4:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Alpena, Oscoda | 30 min |
| Aug 14, 4:05 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | APX | Alcona | 3 hr |
| Aug 14, 4:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Arenac, Iosco, Ogemaw | 37 min |
| Aug 14, 4:40 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | APX | Alcona, Arenac, Iosco | 5 hr |
| Aug 14, 4:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Iosco | 32 min |
| Aug 14, 5:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw, Oscoda | 28 min |
| Aug 14, 5:55 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | APX | 50 min | |
| Aug 14, 6:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Oscoda | 37 min |
| Aug 14, 7:53 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | APX | Roscommon | 37 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.