Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 710
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT for 21 counties in Florida; Charlton County, Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 26, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC)
- Expired
- May 26, 2014, 4:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 22 counties
Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Union County, FL, Charlton County, GA
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 484 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1078 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -51 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -34 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
982
ACUS11 KWNS 261819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261819
FLZ000-GAZ000-262045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL PENINSULA / OKEFENOKEE SWAMP
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261819Z - 262045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLD STRONG DAMAGE-PRODUCING WINDS
SEEM INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY ROUGHLY 20-25 MI INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST AND MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS
WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFYING THE 12Z
JAX RAOB FOR INLAND SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS 2000-2500 MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 9 DEG C PER KM/
AND MOIST TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME STORMS
CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS VIA WATER LOADING. AN ASOS MEASURED 50
MPH GUST WAS OBSERVED RECENTLY AT KNIP AROUND 1730Z. DUE TO THE
EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT AND OBSERVED DATA TRENDS...ISOLD POCKETS OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS /45-60 MPH/ RESULTING IN LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS. GIVEN RELATIVELY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-12 DEG C AT H5/...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 27378230 27848258 28918257 30068313 30898278 30898187
27938088 27178096 27078170 27378230Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.