Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 710

May 26, 201421 counties in Florida; Charlton County, Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 26, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT for 21 counties in Florida; Charlton County, Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 26, 2014, 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC)
Expired
May 26, 2014, 4:45 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 22 counties

Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Union County, FL, Charlton County, GA

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2014-05-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 484 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2014-05-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
484 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-84 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1078 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

982 
ACUS11 KWNS 261819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261819 
FLZ000-GAZ000-262045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN FL PENINSULA / OKEFENOKEE SWAMP

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261819Z - 262045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW POCKETS OF ISOLD STRONG DAMAGE-PRODUCING WINDS
SEEM INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY ROUGHLY 20-25 MI INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST AND MOVING
WESTWARD OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS
WARM THROUGH THE UPPER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODIFYING THE 12Z
JAX RAOB FOR INLAND SURFACE CONDITIONS YIELDS 2000-2500 MLCAPE OVER
THE REGION.  VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 9 DEG C PER KM/
AND MOIST TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME STORMS
CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS VIA WATER LOADING.  AN ASOS MEASURED 50
MPH GUST WAS OBSERVED RECENTLY AT KNIP AROUND 1730Z.  DUE TO THE
EVOLVING ENVIRONMENT AND OBSERVED DATA TRENDS...ISOLD POCKETS OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS /45-60 MPH/ RESULTING IN LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE
APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  GIVEN RELATIVELY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-12 DEG C AT H5/...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   27378230 27848258 28918257 30068313 30898278 30898187
            27938088 27178096 27078170 27378230

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.