Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1621
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 26, 2014, 1:49 PM EDT for 20 counties in Indiana; 19 counties in Michigan; 4 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 26, 2014, 1:49 PM EDT (17:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 26, 2014, 4:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 43 counties
Allen County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 91 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -226 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1506 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
938
ACUS11 KWNS 261749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261749
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261749Z - 262015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FROM
SWRN LOWER MI TO E-CNTRL IL. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. VWPS ACROSS THE
REGION SAMPLE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 15-25 KT FROM 4 TO
6 KM AGL...STRONGEST IN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F -- YIELDING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
EWD...AIDED BY 15-20 KT OF 1-3-KM-AGL FLOW FAVORING EWD SPREAD OF
COLD POOLS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...A MORE
ORGANIZED...FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM WITH A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM
RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 40378738 41898600 43378495 43368347 42798307 41618378
40478539 40378738SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 8:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cass, Clinton, Fountain and 17 more | 60 min |
| Aug 26, 10:34 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lake, Porter | 116 min |
| Aug 26, 3:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartholomew, Blackford, Boone, Brown, Clay, Clinton and 33 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.