Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2014

Flood Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 27, 2014Erie County, Monroe County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 27, 2014, 4:17 PM EDT for Erie County, Monroe County, New York. It took effect at Mar 28, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 27, 2014, 4:17 PM EDT (20:17 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 28, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Mar 28, 2014, 3:34 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

Counties Erie County, NY, Monroe County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 40 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-03-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-03-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 143 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1260 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
225 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

448 
WGUS61 KBUF 272017
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

...ICE JAM FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY ON AREA CREEKS...

.WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BRING A HEIGHTENED RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

NYZ010-280430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0004.140328T1200Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
417 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE. 

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MELTING AND BREAK UP OF ICE ON
  AREA CREEKS WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME RAINFALL AND RUNOFF
  BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RISES AND JAMS. 

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH MAY
  BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
  REPORTED ON BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS
  SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ003-280430-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0004.140328T1200Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER
417 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTY...MONROE. 

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MELTING AND BREAK UP OF ICE ON
  AREA CREEKS WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME RAINFALL AND RUNOFF
  BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RISES AND JAMS.

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH MAY
  BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE HAS BEEN REPORTED
  ON BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO BLACK CREEK SOUTHWEST OF ROCHESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

SMITH
4 follow-up statements
749 
WGUS61 KBUF 280202
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1002 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ON SOME
CREEKS...

.ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CREEK AND RIVER ICE HAS MELTED...THERE ARE
STILL SOME ICE JAMS IN PLACE...AND OF ICE IN THE HEADWATERS OF
CREEKS IN THE WATCH AREA. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS TO RISE ENOUGH TO
MOVE WHATEVER ICE IS LEFT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK
FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EXACT TIME AN LOCATION AN ICE JAM
WILL DEVELOP...BUT GENERALLY ICE JAMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS FROM YEAR TO YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN SPOTS WHERE THERE ARE
SHARP TURNS IN THE CREEK...OR AREAS WHICH CONSTRICT THE FLOW.

NYZ010-281015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.140328T1200Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1002 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY.

* FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING ICE TO
  BREAK UP ON AREA CREEKS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
  ICE JAMS.

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH 
  MAY BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE JAMS HAVE 
  BEEN REPORTED ON BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA 
  CREEKS SOUTH OF BUFFALO. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ003-281015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.140328T1200Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER
1002 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* MONROE COUNTY.

* FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING ICE TO
  BREAK UP ON AREA CREEKS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
  ICE JAMS.

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH 
  MAY BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE HAS BEEN 
  REPORTED ON BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO BLACK CREEK SOUTHWEST OF 
  ROCHESTER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

APFFEL
220 
WGUS61 KBUF 280853
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
453 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ON SOME CREEKS...

.ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CREEK AND RIVER ICE HAS MELTED...THERE ARE
STILL SOME ICE JAMS IN PLACE...AND OF ICE IN THE HEADWATERS OF
CREEKS IN THE WATCH AREAS. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN
QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS TO
RISE ENOUGH TO MOVE WHATEVER ICE IS LEFT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EXACT TIME AN LOCATION AN ICE JAM
WILL DEVELOP...BUT GENERALLY ICE JAMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS FROM YEAR TO YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN SPOTS WHERE THERE ARE
SHARP TURNS IN THE CREEK...OR AREAS WHICH CONSTRICT THE FLOW.

NYZ010-281700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.140328T1200Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
453 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE. 

* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING ICE TO 
  BREAK UP ON AREA CREEKS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL 
  FOR ICE JAMS. 

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH 
  MAY BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE JAMS HAVE 
  BEEN REPORTED ON BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA 
  CREEKS SOUTH OF BUFFALO. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ003-281700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.140328T1200Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER
453 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...MONROE. 

* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING ICE TO 
  BREAK UP ON AREA CREEKS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL 
  FOR ICE JAMS. 

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH 
  MAY BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE HAS BEEN 
  REPORTED ON BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO BLACK CREEK SOUTHWEST OF 
  ROCHESTER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

JJR
163 
WGUS61 KBUF 281439
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ON SOME
CREEKS...

.ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CREEK AND RIVER ICE HAS MELTED...THERE ARE
STILL SOME ICE JAMS IN PLACE...AND SOME ICE IN THE HEADWATERS OF
CREEKS IN THE WATCH AREAS. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL CAUSE CREEKS TO RISE
ENOUGH TO MOVE THE ICE THAT IS LEFT. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASING RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION AN ICE JAM
WILL DEVELOP...BUT GENERALLY ICE JAMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS FROM YEAR TO YEAR...ESPECIALLY IN SPOTS WHERE THERE ARE
SHARP TURNS IN THE CREEK...OR AREAS WHICH CONSTRICT THE FLOW.

NYZ010-282245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1039 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...NORTHERN ERIE. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING ICE TO 
  BREAK UP ON AREA CREEKS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL 
  FOR ICE JAMS. 

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH 
  MAY BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE JAMS HAVE 
  BEEN REPORTED ON BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA 
  CREEKS NEAR THE BORDER OF BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

NYZ003-282245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ROCHESTER
1039 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  COUNTY...MONROE. 

* THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* RAIN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE ANY REMAINING ICE TO 
  BREAK UP ON AREA CREEKS...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL 
  FOR ICE JAMS. 

* ICE JAMMING MAY CAUSE A BACKUP OF WATER ON AREA CREEKS WHICH 
  MAY BRING SOME FLOODING ALONG THE CREEK BANKS. ICE HAS BEEN 
  REPORTED ON BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO BLACK CREEK SOUTHWEST OF 
  ROCHESTER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
493 
WGUS61 KBUF 281934
FFABUF

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

NYZ003-010-282045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140329T1200Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...BUFFALO
334 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING MONROE
AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT AND TODAY HAVE BEEN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...RESULTING IN LESS RUNOFF INTO AREA CREEKS. LOCAL
OFFICIALS ALSO REPORT RIVER AND CREEK ICE CONDITIONS ARE
IMPROVING. LOCAL OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CREEKS...
BUT IT APPEARS THE RISK OF ANY FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ICE JAMS
IS DIMINISHING.

$$

HITCHCOCK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 27, 4:40 AM EDTWind AdvisoryBUFChautauqua, Erie30 hr
Mar 27, 3:49 PM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFLewis16 hr
Mar 27, 4:32 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF33 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2014Every flood watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.