Alert archive / Florida / Hurricane Local Statements in 2013

Hurricane Local Statement 1012, NWS Tallahassee, FL

October 3, 20135 counties in Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this hurricane local statement at Oct 3, 2013, 11:59 AM EDT for 5 counties in Florida. It was in force for 53 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 3, 2013, 11:59 AM EDT (15:59 UTC)
Expired
Oct 5, 2013, 4:55 PM EDT
In force
53 hr
Issued by
NWS Tallahassee, FL

Counties Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2013-10-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2013-10-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -14 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
920 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

468 
WTUS82 KTAE 031559
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS STRENGTHENED WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 65 MPH. HURRICANE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM INDIAN PASS
WESTWARD. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SOUTH
WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO APALACHICOLA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...OR 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2N...LONGITUDE 87.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT
610 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW AT 12
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
THE STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE THREAT FOR A LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING OR
SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-032300-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 /1059 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR HURRICANE SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION. WHILE
THE STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW IS THE TIME
TO MAKE PREPARATION FOR THE STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER
DETERIORATES. 

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER. 

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS AROUND 5
PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS
AROUND 50 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IF
FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE
STORM SURGE AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM
SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM
SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO
2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE. 

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

...INLAND FLOODING...
SOILS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN SATURATED AFTER RECENT
RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KAREN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION. 

$$

FLZ115-032300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.S.1012.131003T1559Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STORM SURGE POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA. 

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-032300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.S.1012.131003T1559Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...STORM SURGE POSSIBLE WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ALONG THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. 

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY. 

$$

GMZ750-770-032300-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1159 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS ALSO A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. 

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IF
FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 

$$

GODSEY
10 follow-up statements
806 
WTUS82 KTAE 032152
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
552 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE HURRICANE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS
FLORIDA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...OR 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3N...LONGITUDE 88.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST
AT 12 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THE
STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST
BY THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE THREAT FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR STORM DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-040600-
/O.CAN.KTAE.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.TR.A.1012.131003T2152Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
552 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 /452 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$

FLZ115-040600-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
552 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA. 

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-040600-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
552 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. 

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY. 

$$

GMZ750-770-040600-
/O.CAN.KTAE.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.TR.A.1012.131003T2152Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
552 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

$$
455 
WTUS82 KTAE 032210
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
610 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE HURRICANE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS
FLORIDA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...OR 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3N...LONGITUDE 88.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT 560
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST
AT 12 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THE
STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST
BY THE WEEKEND INCREASING THE THREAT FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR STORM DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-040615-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
610 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 /510 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION. WHILE THE
STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW IS THE TIME TO
MAKE PREPARATION FOR THE STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER
DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER. 

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND ON FRIDAY. 

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.


&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS HAS DECREASED.
HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS REMAINS
NEAR 50 PERCENT. 

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE
STORM SURGE AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM
SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM
SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO
2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE. 

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

...INLAND FLOODING...
SOILS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN SATURATED AFTER RECENT
RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KAREN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION. 

$$

FLZ115-040615-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
610 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA. 

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-040615-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
610 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. 

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY. 

$$

GMZ750-770-040615-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
610 PM EDT THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS HAS DECREASED. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 

$$

GODSEY
398 
WTUS82 KTAE 040411
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1211 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
APALACHICOLA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...OR 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2N...LONGITUDE 89.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT
520 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 460 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 65 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING OR EARLY SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-041215-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1211 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /1111 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION. WHILE
THE STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW IS THE TIME
TO MAKE PREPARATION FOR THE STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER
DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND ON FRIDAY. 

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS REMAINS NEAR 50 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE
STORM SURGE AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM
SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM
SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO
2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE. 

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

...INLAND FLOODING...
SOILS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN SATURATED AFTER THE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KAREN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER TO THE
EAST AND BRINGS HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE REGION.

$$

FLZ115-041215-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1211 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-041215-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1211 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. 

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-041215-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1211 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AROUND 50
PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

$$
524 
WTUS82 KTAE 041008
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO WATCHES AT THIS TIME. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
APALACHICOLA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...OR 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9N...LONGITUDE 89.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT
510 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 440 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE STORM WILL TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-041815-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /508 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION. WHILE
THE STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA NOW IS THE TIME
TO MAKE PREPARATION FOR THE STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER
DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND ON FRIDAY. 

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
AROUND 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE STORM SURGE AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH
STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM
TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL
WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

...INLAND FLOODING...
SOILS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE REMAIN SATURATED AFTER THE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH KAREN...GENERAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 FEET
ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE
WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS
MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-041815-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-041815-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. 

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-041815-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
608 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

$$
624 
WTUS82 KTAE 041600
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE FURTHER BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF COUNTIES. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND APALACHEE BAY...THERE IS STILL CONCERN
ABOUT RELATED HAZARDS IN THOSE AREAS...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO
STORM SURGE FLOODING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...OR 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6N...LONGITUDE 90.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT
490 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 420 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES
AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY. ON A NORTHEAST COURSE
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE OR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.

KAREN WAS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE STORM SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY TODAY...BUT INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL WITH THIS STORM AS THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN COULD
MAKE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /1100 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION WHILE THE
STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREPARE FOR THE
STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 44
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT
FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE PRECISE STORM SURGE AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION
AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH
STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM
TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL
WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

MUCH AS WITH THE WIND FORECAST...FUTURE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF
KAREN TO THE EAST WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER STORM SURGE FORECASTS AND
GREATER IMPACTS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS
OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS
WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS
TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE
VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 2
TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL
RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF
STORM SURGE FOR AREAS IN APALACHEE BAY...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT
THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE
FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE
AND STORM TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET
OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM
SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. 

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-050000-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1200 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND 45
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 14 TO 18 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.

...WATERSPOUTS... 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

08-LAMERS
209 
WTUS82 KTAE 042159
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN DISORGANIZED AND MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MAY RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF COUNTIES. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND APALACHEE BAY...THERE IS STILL CONCERN
ABOUT RELATED HAZARDS IN THOSE AREAS...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO
STORM SURGE FLOODING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...OR 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9N...LONGITUDE 90.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT
480 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES
AT 7 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY. ON SUCH
A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLOWER MOTION THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD
BE CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KAREN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
KAREN NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST AND BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEAST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH THIS STORM AS THE TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST TURN COULD MAKE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /459 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION WHILE THE
STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREPARE FOR THE
STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN
30 AND 37 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

THE STORM SURGE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF KAREN...SO FUTURE CHANGES IN EITHER OF THOSE WOULD AFFECT THE
STORM SURGE FORECAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS
OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...INCREASING TO
6 TO 12 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS
MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE
IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS
TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF
APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO
THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM
KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 16 TO 20 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

...WATERSPOUTS... 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY.

$$

08-LAMERS
731 
WTUS82 KTAE 050404
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...KAREN LOSING PUNCH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...OR 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4N...LONGITUDE 90.5W. THIS WAS ABOUT
470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST AT
7 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO
TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY.
ON SUCH A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A
LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KAREN REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE
INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE
COAST. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE
ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /1104 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 35 TO 40
PERCENT. THIS IS ROUGHLY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

THE STORM SURGE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF KAREN...SO FUTURE CHANGES IN EITHER OF THOSE WOULD AFFECT THE
STORM SURGE FORECAST. 

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
MINOR FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCREASING TO 6 TO 10 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE- THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AS WELL AS MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA. 

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BREAKERS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE
IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS
TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF
APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-051200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1204 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
40 TO 45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO
THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM
KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 16 TO 20 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

...WATERSPOUTS... 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY.

$$
260 
WTUS82 KTAE 050940
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...OR 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1N...LONGITUDE 91.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT
480 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH
NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ON SUCH A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR
COASTAL ALABAMA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KAREN REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY
THROUGH LANDFALL.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-051745-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /440 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A DECREASE SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY
INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND
35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
MINOR FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS
KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ115-118-127-128-134-051745-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND
LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE
IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS
TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF
APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR
COUNTIES.

$$

GMZ750-770-051745-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A DECREASE SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS.

SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 5 TO 8 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

...WATERSPOUTS... 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY.

$$
047 
WTUS82 KTAE 051537
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1137 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...OR 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9N...LONGITUDE 91.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT
480 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH AT 7
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
KAREN REMAINS A DISORGANIZED AND WEAK TROPICAL STORM. KAREN WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
ACCELERATE. WHILE LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...KAREN COULD APPROACH LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTH ALABAMA OR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BE PREPARED TO PUT INTO
ACTION YOUR STORM DISASTER PLAN SHOULD TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS BE
ISSUED. 

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO
SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE
LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. 

FLZ108-112-114-052200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
1137 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /1037 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RESIDENTS IN COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SECURE LOOSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND IN WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. 

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING BE
ISSUED. 

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS NO CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
KAREN. THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS AROUND 20
PERCENT. 

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN NEARS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS WILL INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...WINDS
UP TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY IN GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE WINDS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE...GENERALLY CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST. 

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS
KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ115-118-127-128-134-052200-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
1137 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND
LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1 TO
2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF APALACHEE BAY IN
WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES.

$$

GMZ750-770-052200-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1137 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. 

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS.

SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 5 TO 8 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA.

$$

GODSEY
351 
WTUS82 KTAE 052055
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
455 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN TO
INDIAN PASS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. 

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
AND BIG BEND. 

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN
PASS. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING AREAS...SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL
BAY...AND COASTAL GULF AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN
TO APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. 

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...OR 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1N...LONGITUDE 91.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 470
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 390 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH AT 2 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
KAREN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. KAREN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WITH
KAREN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED. 

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAS ENDED ACROSS
THE AREA...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON KAREN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
AS IT PERTAINS TO THIS EVENT...THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE.
PLEASE REFER TO FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNING PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THIS OFFICE FOR HAZARDS SPECIFIC TO THE AREA. 

FLZ108-112-114-052200-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
455 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /355 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH KAREN. 

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. 

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED OR WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH IN
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS THE AREA. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY MORNING. TIDES MAY APPROACH ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 

$$

FLZ115-118-127-128-134-052200-
/O.CAN.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
455 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD THREAT DIMINISHING ACROSS APALACHEE BAY...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS KAREN IS
PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. 

&&

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME AREAS IN APALACHEE
BAY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN ALLIGATOR POINT AND ADAMS BEACH COULD
SEE TIDES UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. 

$$

GMZ750-770-052200-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
455 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS HIGH SEAS AND WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT LONGER ANTICIPATED HOWEVER
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE MARINE AREA. 

$$

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 3, 9:17 AM EDTHurricane WatchTAEBay, Gulf, Walton9 hr
Oct 3, 4:29 PM EDTRip Current StatementTAEFranklin9 hr
Oct 3, 5:52 PM EDTTropical Storm WatchTAEBay, Gulf, Walton47 hr

Nearby

Hurricane Local Statements in Florida, 2013Every hurricane local statement in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.