Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 1237

June 25, 2013Hancock County, Illinois; 46 counties in Iowa; 19 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2013, 9:44 PM CDT for Hancock County, Illinois; 46 counties in Iowa; 19 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2013, 9:44 PM CDT (02:44 UTC)
Expired
Jun 25, 2013, 11:15 PM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 66 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Wright County, IA, Hancock County, IL, Adair County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2013-06-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2162 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2013-06-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 84 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2162 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1316 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
3.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

609 
ACUS11 KWNS 260245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260244 
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 260244Z - 260415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL/ERN IA
AND NRN MO TONIGHT. STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A 30-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS NEWD FROM OK/KS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE AND WAA LOCATED IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE LLJ COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL YIELD
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN
IA INTO NRN MO...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CNTRL IA POSSIBLY
SIGNALING AN AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO UPSCALE GROWTH/MCS DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39309147 39179330 40109395 42789376 43339321 43229179
            42059066 39309147

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 9:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Coles, Crawford and 27 more85 min
Jun 25, 9:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBureau, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay and 47 more7 hr
Jun 26, 1:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette and 10 more92 min
Jun 26, 2:09 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 13 more5 hr
Jun 26, 3:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Fulton and 24 more88 min
Jun 26, 5:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Edwards and 30 more89 min
Jun 26, 11:11 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Lawrence, Richland, Wabash2 hr
Jun 26, 12:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 13 more11 hr
Jun 26, 2:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jefferson, Marion and 4 more115 min
Jun 26, 3:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Calhoun, Clinton, Greene, Jersey and 7 more95 min
Jun 26, 6:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson and 10 more96 min
Jun 25, 8:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Boone, Calhoun and 34 more97 min
Jun 25, 10:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Adams, Appanoose, Audubon, Black Hawk, Boone and 38 more5 hr
Jun 26, 1:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Cerro Gordo and 13 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.