Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1021

June 2, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2012, 1:38 PM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 2, 2012, 1:38 PM MDT (19:38 UTC)
Expired: Jun 2, 2012, 3:15 PM MDT
In force: 97 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 216 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341Jun 2, 2:35 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2483 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

009 
ACUS11 KWNS 021938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021938 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-022115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 021938Z - 022115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION HAS IT
MIGRATES OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF CO INTO NERN NM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS AIDED IN PART BY A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. 
HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE INSTRUMENTAL IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO NERN NM.  LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND 650-600 MB AND
WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SFC NEAR 35 F IT WOULD SEEM
PLAUSIBLE THAT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL.  WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING WANES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS THERE IS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS RETURNING NWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS MAY ALSO FOCUS TSTM ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/02/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34800408 38120455 39010355 38140187 34730266 34800408

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 2, 2:33 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Arapahoe, Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert and 12 more	7 hr
Jun 2, 4:57 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Bent, Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Logan and 5 more	2 hr
Jun 1, 8:15 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jackson	60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.