Alert archive / Michigan / Red Flag Warnings in 2012

Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

May 15, 201222 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this red flag warning at May 15, 2012, 3:56 AM EDT for 22 counties in Michigan. It took effect at May 15, 2012, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 10 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2012, 3:56 AM EDT (07:56 UTC)
In effect from
May 15, 2012, 11:00 AM EDT
Expired
May 15, 2012, 8:33 PM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 22 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 15, 8:15 PM EDTHAIL 0.88Manistee, MI
May 15, 8:20 PM EDTHAIL 0.883 E Manistee, MI
May 15, 8:21 PM EDTHAIL 11 Sw Manistee, MI
May 15, 8:27 PM EDTHAIL 0.254 E Dublin, MI
May 15, 8:34 PM EDTHAIL 0.255 Wnw Manton, MI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2012-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2012-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2769 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

503 
WWUS83 KAPX 150756
RFWAPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
356 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH WINDS...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON TODAY 
AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION 
TONIGHT. OUR FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONT 
PASSES. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. WITH THE
EXTREMELY DRY AIR...DRY LIGHTNING...RARE FOR THIS AREA...MAY OCCUR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MIZ016>036-041-042-151600-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FW.W.0002.120515T1500Z-120516T0100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
356 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH WINDS FOR NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...  

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH WINDS...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 EMMET...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 017 CHEBOYGAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 018 PRESQUE ISLE...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 019 CHARLEVOIX...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 020 LEELANAU...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 021 ANTRIM...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 022 OTSEGO...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 023 MONTMORENCY...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 024 
  ALPENA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 025 BENZIE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 026 
  GRAND TRAVERSE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 KALKASKA...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 028 CRAWFORD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 029 OSCODA...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 030 ALCONA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 031 MANISTEE...
  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 032 WEXFORD...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 033 
  MISSAUKEE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 034 ROSCOMMON...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 035 OGEMAW...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 036 IOSCO...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 041 GLADWIN AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 ARENAC.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING...ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START AROUND
  1100 AM THIS MORNING AND GO UNTIL 900 PM TONIGHT ONCE THE COLD
  FRONT GOES THROUGH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT...SOME LOCATIONS
  COULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

* LIGHTNING...AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE
  FOR DRY LIGHTNING AS THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC MAY EVAPORATE MOST
  OF THE RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS. PERSONS ARE URGED TO BE CAREFUL WITH ANY ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A FIRES. CAMPFIRES...OUTDOOR
GRILLS...SMOKING MATERIALS...CHAIN SAWS...AND ALL-TERRAIN
VEHICLES ALL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO THROW A SPARK AND IGNITE A
DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE FIRE.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$
1 follow-up statement
569 
WWUS83 KAPX 160033
RFWAPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
833 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012


MIZ016>036-041-042-160145-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120516T0100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
833 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAS KICKED OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PROVIDING SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ALSO...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 3:55 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX11 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Michigan, 2012Every red flag warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.