Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 710
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2011, 1:12 PM CDT for 31 counties in Oklahoma; 27 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2011, 1:12 PM CDT (18:12 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2011, 3:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 58 counties
Atoka County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Norman radar (KTLX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1172 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -569 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1498 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 280 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 274 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
398
ACUS11 KWNS 101813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101812
OKZ000-TXZ000-102015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101812Z - 102015Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL MOVE NWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ENSUE...ANY
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.
THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LATITUDE WAVE EMERGING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO TX HAS PROMPTED THE
RECENT INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
TX AT THE APEX OF A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. SINCE STATIC
STABILITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY
AMPLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
PLUME...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB PER
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 12Z FORT WORTH AND NORMAN SOUNDINGS INDICATING
700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.9 C PER KM AND 9.2 C PER
KM...RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...SMALL HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS NWD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO CNTRL TX CLOSER TO
A 500-MB VORT MAX. GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...A
SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD DEVELOP WITH THE MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AOB 30 KT...THE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/DURATION MAY BE
LIMITED...REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THUS...THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW IS UNLIKELY.
..COHEN.. 05/10/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34509566 32689595 32099677 31969803 32649903 33739927
34219928 35619890 36259810 36209672 35499595 34509566Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.