Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2011
Mesoscale Discussion 1521
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 6, 2011, 1:04 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 6, 2011, 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 6, 2011, 2:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 59 counties
Oxford County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1486 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
573
ACUS11 KWNS 061705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061704
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-061800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...NH...VT...ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061704Z - 061800Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NY...VT...NH AND WRN MAINE AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AND WW
ISSUANCE SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN QUEBEC LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS
CNTRL AND ERN NY EXTENDING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
ARE NOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD CONTAIN A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL OR FASTER MOVING LINE-SEGMENT CAN
ORGANIZE.
..BROYLES.. 07/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 41707734 41677546 43017192 43827050 44507034 44847057
44987139 44917278 44637507 43147722 41707734SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 1:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Franklin, Oxford, Somerset | 8 hr |
| Jul 6, 5:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Penobscot, Piscataquis | 3 hr |
| Jul 6, 6:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Oxford, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2011Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2011Every mesoscale discussion in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.