Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 26, 2007, 12:44 PM MDT for Chaves County, Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 26, 2007, 12:44 PM MDT (18:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 26, 2007, 3:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
Counties Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 403 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -120 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 891 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 261844 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261844 COR TXZ000-NMZ000-262100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...SWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 261844Z - 262100Z CORRECTED FOR CODING AND MD GRAPHIC SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MX. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SELY ACROSS SERN NM. COMBINED WITH MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 25 KTS/...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED AN ISOLATED TSTM OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE MTNS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE DAVIS MTNS OF SWRN TX MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 09/26/2007 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 33470456 32830517 31710568 30270488 30040453 29860317 30590237 31960204 33260264 33800299 33800397
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 3:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 18 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.