Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2007

Mesoscale Discussion 2021

September 26, 2007Chaves County, Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 14 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 26, 2007, 12:44 PM MDT for Chaves County, Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 26, 2007, 12:44 PM MDT (18:44 UTC)
Expired
Sep 26, 2007, 3:00 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely

Counties Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2007-09-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 403 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2007-09-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 64 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
403 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-120 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
891 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 261844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261844 COR
TXZ000-NMZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 261844Z - 262100Z

CORRECTED FOR CODING AND MD GRAPHIC

SCT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND/LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. 

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN
SONORA MX. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SELY ACROSS SERN NM. COMBINED WITH
MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 25 KTS/...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
WIND/HAIL. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS
ALREADY SUPPORTED AN ISOLATED TSTM OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GUADALUPE MTNS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS
OVER THE DAVIS MTNS OF SWRN TX MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE TRANS-PECOS REGION.
LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AND MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 09/26/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33470456 32830517 31710568 30270488 30040453 29860317
30590237 31960204 33260264 33800299 33800397

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 26, 3:03 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 18 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2007Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2007Every mesoscale discussion in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.