Alert archive / Michigan / Red Flag Warnings in 2007

Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

April 29, 200722 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this red flag warning at Apr 29, 2007, 10:34 AM EDT for 22 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Apr 29, 2007, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 29, 2007, 10:34 AM EDT (14:34 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 29, 2007, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
Apr 29, 2007, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 22 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2007-04-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2007-04-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 67 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1884 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS83 KAPX 291434
RFWAPX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1034 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...

.LOW PRESSURE PUNCHING THROUGH ONTARIO TODAY WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 75
DEGREES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS
DRY...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
US 131 AND SOUTH OF M-32...INCLUDING THE HURON NATIONAL FOREST.
THE LEAST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...
INCLUDING SLEEPING BEAR DUNES...AS WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF THE
COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER KEEPING HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPRINKLES. ALSO...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME COOLER EARLY IN
THE EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RISING HUMIDITIES AND A SHARPLY
REDUCED WILDFIRE THREAT.

MIZ016>036-041-042-300100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.FW.A.0002.070429T1600Z-070430T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.FW.W.0002.070429T1600Z-070430T0100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1034 AM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 75 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
AND WILL GUST TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER TO VALUES NEARING
25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

SMD
2 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS83 KAPX 291948
RFWAPX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...

.LOW PRESSURE PUNCHING THROUGH ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 75 DEGREES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS REMAINS DRY...AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED RISK FOR
WILDFIRES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
US 131 AND SOUTH OF M-32...INCLUDING THE HURON NATIONAL FOREST.
THE LEAST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...
INCLUDING SLEEPING BEAR DUNES...AS WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF THE
COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATER KEEPING HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. ALSO...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME COOLER EARLY IN THE
EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RISING HUMIDITIES AND A SHARPLY
REDUCED WILDFIRE THREAT.

MIZ016>036-041-042-300100-
/O.CON.KAPX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070430T0100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
348 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES AROUND 75 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
AND WILL GUST TO 35 MPH. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN NEAR 25 PERCENT
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$
000 
WWUS83 KAPX 300054
RFWAPX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
854 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

MIZ016>036-041-042-300200-
/O.EXP.KAPX.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070430T0100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
854 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH
HUMIDITIES RECOVERING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED
TONIGHT...AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

LAWRENCE

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Michigan, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.