Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006

Mesoscale Discussion 921

May 21, 200610 counties in North Carolina; 33 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2006, 3:39 PM EDT for 10 counties in North Carolina; 33 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 21, 2006, 3:39 PM EDT (19:39 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2006, 4:45 PM EDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 43 counties

Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Columbus County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Pender County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Union County, NC, Aiken County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Union County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2006-05-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 12 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2006-05-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 31 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-344 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1659 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 211939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211939 
NCZ000-SCZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SC...SERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...

VALID 211939Z - 212045Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW AHEAD OF CURRENT
STORM CLUSTER...WITH POTENTIAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE THREAT/BOW ECHO DURING THE NEXT HOUR.  AREAS WEST OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE DROPPED FROM CURRENT WATCH GIVEN CONVECTIVE
STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS. AREAS EAST OF THE WATCH TO
THE SC/SERN NC COAST WILL NEED ADDITIONAL WATCH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE/EVOLVE
QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY HAS A
HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL...WITH LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING OTHER RAPID DEVELOPMENT CONTINUING TO ADVANCE THIS BROKEN
CLUSTER OF STORMS ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW DURING THE NEXT 1-1.5
HOURS. STRONG HEATING AND LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
ACTIVITY SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL SC...INCLUDING THE CAE AREA... AROUND 2030Z.  THIS
IS RECENTLY EVIDENCED BY INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OVER THE
PAST HALF-HOUR.

EXTRAPOLATION USING CURRENT MOTION OF 290/45KT PLACES LEADING
ACTIVITY EAST OF WW BY 2130Z.  WITH PREVAILING WLY SURFACE
WINDS...SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEARER THE COAST AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90F ACROSS ERN SC AND SERN NC AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN DEGREE OF HEATING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE
NERN SC/SERN NC COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  THUS...WW WILL BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..EVANS.. 05/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

33028108 33548198 34338242 35098173 35047988 34867833
34497771 33827786 32947888 32857992

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 20, 8:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Catawba, Cherokee, Clay and 17 more28 min
May 20, 9:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon9 hr
May 20, 9:35 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Chatham, Columbus and 22 more55 min
May 21, 12:32 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBladen, Cherokee, Clay, Columbus, Graham, Macon and 2 more88 min
May 21, 12:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHenderson, Polk, Transylvania55 min
May 21, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnson, Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender and 3 more3 hr
May 21, 5:46 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBladen, Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Richmond and 2 more89 min
May 21, 1:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAbbeville, Aiken, Anderson, Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun and 24 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.