Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 18, 2005, 1:42 PM EDT for 16 counties in North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, Marion County, South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 18, 2005, 1:42 PM EDT (17:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 18, 2005, 3:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1228 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1012 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 37 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 181743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181742 NCZ000-SCZ000-181945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC THROUGH ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181742Z - 181945Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF ERN SC THROUGH ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL NC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL SC. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -5C TO -7C AROUND 6 KM WILL TEND TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE AXIS OF ENHANCED CUMULUS OVER ERN SC...AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE SEABREEZE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVELS TO BE FAIRLY DRY OVER ERN NC...AND THIS COULD SERVE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF ENTRAINMENT. HOWEVER...MODELS INITIALIZE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM VA SWD INTO NC...AND WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MIGHT ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FLOW IS RATHER WEAK WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 09/18/2005 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 34747711 33377933 33807994 34817856 35757736 36077676 36057594 35397607
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2005Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.