Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2005

Mesoscale Discussion 1908

July 31, 2005Maricopa County, Pinal County, Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 31, 2005, 5:00 PM MST for Maricopa County, Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 31, 2005, 5:00 PM MST (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Jul 31, 2005, 7:00 PM MST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Maricopa County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2005-08-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 211 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2005-08-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
211 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2155 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 010000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010000 
AZZ000-010200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010000Z - 010200Z

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PHOENIX METRO AREA
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

AT 2350Z...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER THAT FORMED ACROSS THE SERN AZ MTNS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WNWWD TOWARD THE LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEYS/BASINS OF S-CENTRAL AZ. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 100F AROUND PHX...CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF STORMS AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT GUST FRONT AND A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z.  REMNANT
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE S-CENTRAL
AZ/MEXICO BORDER...MAY ALSO BE AIDING LOW-LEVEL SELY STEERING FLOW
AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD PHX.
LEADING GUST FRONT EMANATING FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING WWD
AT AROUND 30 KT. EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE
INTO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
AROUND 40F. THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PHX METRO AREA THROUGH 0130Z.

..BANACOS.. 08/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

33701237 33841205 33841168 33661141 33381111 33151107
32961107 32731131 32711172 32751203 32951235 33141250
33411252

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2005Every mesoscale discussion in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.