Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2139

August 28, 200447 counties in Arkansas; 23 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 28, 2004, 11:03 AM CDT for 47 counties in Arkansas; 23 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 28, 2004, 11:03 AM CDT (16:03 UTC)
Expired: Aug 28, 2004, 1:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 70 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Clark County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Texas County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1855 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

026 
ACUS11 KWNS 281605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281603 
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281603Z - 281830Z

SEVERE TSTMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT ACROSS PARTS SERN MO AND CNTRL/ERN
SECTIONS OF AR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL WATCH AHEAD OF ONGOING
STORMS MAY BE NEEDED IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
COLD POOL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WRN AR THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE.
THE SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20KT WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN
MO. ALL OF THESE STORMS REMAIN IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PER
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT VWP DATA. HOWEVER...INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND SMALL MID LEVEL
WIND MAX OF ABOUT 30KT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV APPROACHING FROM
OK...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS FROM MULTICELL STORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE OUTFLOW...OR NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. A FEW ISOLD MARGINAL HAIL REPORTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS CONTINUE...A WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 08/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

37918974 36878942 35468984 33939095 33689186 33729283
33809360 34079426 35669307 36299302 37319298

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 27, 8:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Andrew, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 26 more	59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.