Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 21
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 17, 2004, 4:00 PM CST for 46 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 17, 2004, 4:00 PM CST (22:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 17, 2004, 6:00 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties
Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Austin County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Houston County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Polk County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 959 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 145 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 185 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
128 ACUS11 KWNS 172201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172200 TXZ000-180000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0400 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172200Z - 180000Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING INTO ACROSS ERN TX. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG OVER ERN TX...WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY FROM HOU NWD TO NEAR GGG ALONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT /STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG A SFC TROUGH FROM A LOW JUST NE OF DFW SWD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE IMPINGES ON AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY. DESPITE MARGINAL/VEERED LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE MITIGATED BY DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION BETWEEN 18/00Z AND 18/03Z. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH SHORT DURATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CROSBIE.. 01/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 33169663 31409745 30139731 29509624 30779410 33559468
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 10:38 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Hardin, Jefferson, Orange | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.