Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1721

July 17, 20048 counties in Arkansas; 15 parishes in Louisiana; 11 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 17, 2004, 2:18 AM CDT for 8 counties in Arkansas; 15 parishes in Louisiana; 11 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 17, 2004, 2:18 AM CDT (07:18 UTC)
Expired
Jul 17, 2004, 3:15 AM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Drew County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Union County, AR, Caldwell Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2004-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 227 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2004-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 189 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
227 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-153 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1375 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
189 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
424 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

826 
ACUS11 KWNS 170719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170718 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NERN LA / MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652...

VALID 170718Z - 170815Z

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...SEVERE
THREAT OVER MUCH OF WW HAS DECREASED.  WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 17/08Z.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS SERN AR
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WHICH EXTENDS SWD INTO LA /
FAR SWRN MS.  MORE STABLE AIRMASS -- AND THUS WEAKER CONVECTION --
IS INDICATED ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO W CENTRAL MS...WHERE EARLIER
CONVECTION OCCURRED.

ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SERN AR / NERN LA AND
SWRN MS -- ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF WW...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS WHERE ONLY 15 TO 20 KT
FLOW IS INDICATED.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED /
MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS.  

IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL -- AND AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS ALONG
LEADING EDGE -- COULD EVOLVE FROM STORMS OVER SERN AR ATTM...THREAT
FOR GUSTY / MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT. 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR ANY MESOSCALE
INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...BUT ATTM NEW WW IS NOT
EXPECTED AFTER THE 17/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 652.

..GOSS.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

34239179 33529110 31439017 30979098 31169190 32469267
33839262

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 9:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 14 more87 min
Jul 16, 9:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 17 more5 hr
Jul 17, 6:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Caldwell, De Soto, Grant, Jackson, LaSalle and 6 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.