Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1237

June 12, 200431 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 12, 2004, 9:33 PM CDT for 31 counties in Minnesota; 9 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 12, 2004, 9:33 PM CDT (02:33 UTC)
Expired
Jun 12, 2004, 11:30 PM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lyon County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Rice County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Washington County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN, Barron County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2004-06-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 840 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2004-06-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 42 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
840 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-92 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1411 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
42 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
117 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

124 
ACUS11 KWNS 130233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130233 
WIZ000-MNZ000-130430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...WRN AND CENTRAL OK...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...

VALID 130233Z - 130430Z

PORTIONS OF WW 448 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF WW
448 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED.

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS AS IT MOVES ENEWD AROUND 45 KTS FROM NORTH OF ABI/SW OF SPS INTO
THE SERN PORTION OF WW 448 JACK/WISE AND CLAY COUNTIES BY AROUND
04Z. STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND MINIMAL
INHIBITION NOTED ON THE FWD SOUNDING...SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND 04Z INTO
NCENTRAL TX WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE 04Z.


FARTHER NORTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INTERSECTING A OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE AND NEW STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN THIS
AREA. NWD PROGRESS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT WHERE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE NWD INTO ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED FOR QUITE SOME TIME THIS EVENING OVER
WRN OK IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
CONTINUING AS IT MOVES INTO WW 454. CONVECTION MOVING ESEWD OUT OF
CENTRAL KS MAY BACKBUILD SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THUS THIS AREA MAY AS WELL NEED TO BE PUT INTO A REPLACEMENT
SEVERE WW BEFORE 04Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152
45269098 44239216

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 12, 7:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDakota, Dodge, Fillmore, Goodhue, Houston, Mower and 6 more2 hr
Jun 12, 9:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnoka, Benton, Carver, Chippewa, Chisago, Dakota and 25 more2 hr
Jun 13, 3:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Carlton, Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs and 2 more2 hr
Jun 13, 5:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Stevens, Traverse116 min
Jun 13, 7:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Clark, Florence, Forest, Jackson, Juneau and 19 more91 min
Jun 13, 11:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Calumet, Door, Fond du Lac, Kenosha, Kewaunee and 10 more90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.