Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 1221

June 12, 200417 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 12, 2004, 3:08 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 12, 2004, 3:08 PM CDT (20:08 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2004, 5:15 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Borden County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 450Jun 12, 3:25 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1156 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -259 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1627 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 152 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

847 
ACUS11 KWNS 122008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122008 
TXZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122008Z - 122215Z

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WEST TX. SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. A NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM JUST EAST OF
LUBBOCK TO NEAR MIDLAND AND INTO BIG BEND NP. A DISTURBANCE IS
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SERN NM AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED ACROSS FAR
WEST TX AND WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS. WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30250196 29970284 30240363 30660368 31010321 31130307
31740211 33020134 32919982 31580036 30610124

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 8:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baylor, Coke, Cottle, Fisher, Foard, Glasscock and 15 more	88 min
Jun 11, 10:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Fisher and 15 more	85 min
Jun 11, 10:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Fisher and 15 more	96 min
Jun 12, 1:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Clay, Jack, Knox, Montague and 5 more	2 hr
Jun 12, 2:40 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Childress, Clay, Cottle, Dickens and 12 more	8 hr
Jun 12, 3:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Brewster, Callahan, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Fisher and 19 more	6 hr
Jun 12, 5:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Childress, Clay, Cottle, Dickens and 12 more	83 min
Jun 12, 6:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 20 more	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.