Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 430

April 7, 200322 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 7, 2003, 9:42 AM CDT for 22 parishes in Louisiana; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 7, 2003, 9:42 AM CDT (14:42 UTC)
Expired
Apr 7, 2003, 12:15 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Chambers County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Orange County, TX

The radar

The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 12 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-04-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1791 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-04-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -64 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1791 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
518 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.6
Supercell composite
-2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

554 
ACUS11 KWNS 071443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071442 
LAZ000-TXZ000-071715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT MON APR 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SWRN LA...EXTREME SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071442Z - 071715Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY SE OF A LINE FROM GLS
BAY REGION ENEWD TO 60 NW BTR...WITH ACTIVITY BOTH DEVELOPING
OVER LAND AND MOVING NEWD OFF GULF.  EXPECT COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO
INCREASE STEADILY NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO MAY
DEVELOP WITH STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.  WW MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS.



SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE AND
WEAK SFC TROUGH NEAR HOU-HEZ LINE...NEAR AND S OF WHICH MOST
ACTIVITY AHOLD BE FOCUSED.  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB
ANALYSES INDICATE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION NOW MOVING
NEWD ACROSS TX COASTAL BEND REGION TOWARD DISCUSSION AREA. 
EXPECT INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ENHANCING LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  8-9
DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN IN UPSTREAM CRP RAOB.  EXPECT
INCREASING CAPE IN TANDEM WITH SURFACE DIABATIC WARMING...WHICH
SHOULD OVERCOME LOW LEVEL CINH EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOB DATA AND
RUC SOUNDINGS.	ONCE CONVECTION BECOMES NEARLY SURFACE BASED --
AS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH ACTIVITY OVER GULF AND AS SHOULD
OCCUR OVER LAND BY ABOUT 16Z -- MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG IS
POSSIBLE.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE APPEARS AT LEAST MARGINAL ON
MESOSCALE WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
ENHANCING SR SFC INFLOW.  HOWEVER...LOW-MID LEVEL SR FLOW
WEAKNESSES ABOVE SFC WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...KEEPING 0-3 KM
SRH LARGELY IN 100-200 J/KG RANGE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

29109506 29719507 30619386 31039309 30949140 30289043
29359139

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 6, 8:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatahoula, Concordia, Franklin, LaSalle, Tensas2 hr
Apr 7, 10:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 26 more6 hr
Apr 7, 11:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Cameron, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Lafayette and 8 more3 hr
Apr 7, 2:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Calcasieu, Cameron, East Baton Rouge and 20 more3 hr
Apr 7, 2:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Calcasieu, Cameron, East Baton Rouge and 20 more114 min
Apr 7, 3:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Calcasieu, Cameron, East Baton Rouge and 22 more5 hr
Apr 7, 5:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Cameron, Iberia, Iberville, Lafayette and 10 more2 hr
Apr 7, 12:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar, Brazoria and 28 more66 min
Apr 7, 1:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bee, Bexar, Brazoria, Caldwell and 23 more5 hr
Apr 7, 3:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde, Val Verde114 min
Apr 7, 4:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 22 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.