Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2421

September 27, 20036 counties in New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 27, 2003, 6:39 AM EDT for 6 counties in New York. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 27, 2003, 6:39 AM EDT (10:39 UTC)
Expired
Sep 27, 2003, 8:15 AM EDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-09-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-09-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1576 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

688 
ACUS11 KWNS 271039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271039 
NYZ000-PAZ000-271215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 934...

VALID 271039Z - 271215Z

STORMS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION...THUS
NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED AS WW 934 EXPIRES AT 27/12Z.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVERALL ACROSS WRN NY ACCORDING TO
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD INTO ONTARIO / QUEBEC.  THUS...DESPITE
FAVORABLE WIND FIELD THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED DECREASE IN THE
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

AN ISOLATED STRONG / SEVERE STORM IS MOVING NEWD INTO ERIE COUNTY NY
ATTM...AND OVERALL THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST WITH A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED BEYOND
27/12Z.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

42007983 42517971 43187741 42587732 41987786

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 27, 1:58 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 9 more62 min
Sep 27, 2:35 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 6 more5 hr
Sep 27, 2:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca and 4 more113 min
Sep 27, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCayuga, Chemung, Cortland, Onondaga, Ontario, Schuyler and 6 more5 hr
Sep 27, 6:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCayuga, Ontario, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Wayne and 1 more53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.