Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 1421
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2003, 11:14 AM MDT for 13 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 20, 2003, 11:14 AM MDT (17:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 20, 2003, 1:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 92 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -216 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1827 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 166 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 215 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
147 ACUS11 KWNS 201715 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201714 TXZ000-NMZ000-201915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201714Z - 201915Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF THE AREA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH. BAND OF MORNING TSTMS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ENEWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO TRAILING PORTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LOW LEVEL SELY/UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM WEST TX INTO ERN NM AND WERE TRANSPORTING HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD INTO THE HIGHER PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CAP WAS WEAKENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NM...AND DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN WEST TX...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE BULK OF MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA... BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT. ..CARBIN.. 06/20/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 32110589 33250639 34160601 34860577 36230497 36590401 36020325 33410316 30230292
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 12:30 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding and 11 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 20, 2:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Lincoln and 4 more | 114 min |
| Jun 20, 5:04 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding and 7 more | 86 min |
| Jun 20, 1:28 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Briscoe, Cochran, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Garza and 9 more | 92 min |
| Jun 20, 2:45 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 22 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 20, 3:34 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Loving, Midland and 7 more | 116 min |
| Jun 20, 5:30 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 35 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.