Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1421

June 20, 200313 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2003, 11:14 AM MDT for 13 counties in New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2003, 11:14 AM MDT (17:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2003, 1:15 PM MDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2003-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 92 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2003-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 166 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
92 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-216 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1827 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
166 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
215 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

147 
ACUS11 KWNS 201715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201714 
TXZ000-NMZ000-201915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201714Z - 201915Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF THE AREA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

BAND OF MORNING TSTMS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ENEWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL NM. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO
TRAILING PORTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...LOW LEVEL SELY/UPSLOPE WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM WEST TX
INTO ERN NM AND WERE TRANSPORTING HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD
INTO THE HIGHER PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND CAP WAS WEAKENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN
NM...AND DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN WEST TX...OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE BULK OF MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA... BROADLY
DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30KT WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION GIVEN ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE A THREAT OF HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS...AND A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT.

..CARBIN.. 06/20/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32110589 33250639 34160601 34860577 36230497 36590401
36020325 33410316 30230292

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 12:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding and 11 more8 hr
Jun 20, 2:21 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding, Lincoln and 4 more114 min
Jun 20, 5:04 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Guadalupe, Harding and 7 more86 min
Jun 20, 1:28 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Cochran, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd, Garza and 9 more92 min
Jun 20, 2:45 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Cochran and 22 more6 hr
Jun 20, 3:34 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Loving, Midland and 7 more116 min
Jun 20, 5:30 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 35 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.